My 2025 Forecast: Progress Report

This article serves as an update to my initial 2025 market forecast made last December. The risks I highlighted have become increasingly prominent for investors.

Despite the weak technical indicators in the market, there is room for short-term recovery. However, the overall landscape suggests that without significant intervention, the risk level remains considerably high.

The focus of this report is risk management rather than trying to predict where the market will land in the future. It's essential to have an understanding of the structural changes previously identified in my last report, as they are crucial for making informed investment decisions in the current market landscape.

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The Edge of Gory: Are We There Yet?

In my December 2025 outlook titled "The Edge of Gory," I intentionally referenced Lady Gaga's "Edge of Glory" due to the overly optimistic sentiment in the market at that time. This playful homage highlights how extreme such optimism had become.

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Analyst Disclosure: I hold a beneficial long position in SPY shares via stock ownership and other derivatives. I authored this article and express my own opinions within it. I am not receiving compensation for it, apart from my association with the investing community.

In conclusion, remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and no recommendations are made regarding whether any investment is suitable for you. Views shared may not uniformly reflect the opinions of all market analysts.

forecast, investment, risk