Marriott International Q4 Earnings Watch: Expectations and Key Metrics

As Marriott International (MAR) prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter earnings, expectations are set for an earnings per share (EPS) increase of 8.2% to $2.12, compared to the same period the previous year. The hospitality giant's revenue is also anticipated to rise by 6.8%, reaching $6.32 billion. This forecast stems from a collective analysis by Wall Street experts.

Earnings Forecast

Over the past 30 days, there has been a slight downward revision of the EPS estimate by 0.4%. Such changes are essential to observe as they can significantly influence investors' behavior in relation to the stock's short-term price movements. There's a proven correlation between earnings estimate trends and stock price action.

Delving into Key Marriott Metrics

While the EPS and revenue forecasts serve as common benchmarks for performance, zeroing in on precise key business metrics can uncover a more detailed picture of the company's health. The consensus among analysts for Marriott's 'Gross fee revenues' sits at $1.21 billion, presenting a 7.4% year-over-year increase.

Similarly, 'Net fee revenues' are expected to hit $1.19 billion, with a 7.5% rise from the previous year. On the flip side, 'Owned, leased, and other revenue' might see a minor decline by 1.6%, estimated at $389.78 million.

Projected growth is anticipated in 'Franchise fees,' which could reach $702.02 million, showing a 6.7% increase. Meanwhile, 'Incentive management fees’ are predicted to climb by 5.5% to nearly $196.20 million.

For 'Cost reimbursements', analysts have agreed on a consensus of $4.74 billion, up 7.3% from the same quarter last year. Furthermore, 'Base management fees' could see a notable jump of 10.1%, arriving at $315.90 million.

Finally, the 'Comparable Systemwide International Properties Worldwide REVPAR Growth Rate' is projected at 8.4%, which, although positive, marks a slowdown from the previous year’s remarkable growth rate of 28.8%.

Earnings, Performance, Forecast